The project ‘Understanding Recent Fertility Trends in the UK and Improving Methodologies for Fertility Forecasting’ will examine the significant fluctuations in fertility levels in the UK in the last two decades, will investigate their causes, and will develop improved methodologies for fertility forecasting. The last two decades have witnessed dramatic changes in fertility levels, which were not predicted by demographers or government statisticians: Fertility significantly increased in the first decade of the 21st century, whereas...

Neighbours and work colleagues can all potentially have an influence on our behaviour. For instance, poor health behaviours amongst neighbours and colleagues may normalise and reinforce our own poor health behaviours. This is one example of a peer effect. Imitative behaviour can cause small initial changes in individual behaviour to spread amongst their social networks and result in a ’social multiplier’ effect. Understanding the size and mechanisms behind the ’social multiplier’ effect allows for more...

The obesity epidemic continues to be one of the biggest public health challenges in the 21st century. Rates continue to rise globally and at all stages of the life course. In pregnant women this can be especially problematic due to the increased risk of pregnancy complications, subsequent non-communicable diseases, adverse birth outcomes and increased risk of obesity and metabolic diseases in later life for the offspring. The latest published figures in Northern Ireland 2017/18 show...

There is a growing understanding that there are social gradients in health, teenage birth rates and causes of morbidity and mortality. However, the more ultimate causes and the more precise patterns that underlie this variation is yet largely unknown. The overall project aims to better understand individual and area level effects on reproductive decision-making, health and a deprivation in Northern Ireland.

This is a development of the NILS022 project where a statistical analysis was based upon a panel of women aged 15-44 over the period 1997-2007 that was constructed from the NILS. A similar methodology is proposed; the statistical analysis consists of a panel logit analysis of whether a birth occurs in a period; the explanatory variables will include parity, duration, religion and locality variables.

The UK has the highest rates of teenage pregnancy in Western Europe and while these have been gradually falling across the UK (including NI) since 2002, rates of pregnancy for girls aged less than 20 remains high. While it is acknowledged that not all teenage pregnancies are unintended and that the life course for teenage parents is not necessarily negative, unintended pregnancy remains a major component of adolescent pregnancies and can risks considerable adverse health...

There is a growing understanding that there are social gradients in health, teenage birth rates and causes of morbidity and mortality. However, the more ultimate causes and the more precise patterns that underlie this variation is yet largely unknown (Nettle 2010). The overall project aims to better understand individual and area level effects on reproductive decision-making, health and a range of “risky” behaviours related to mortality in Northern Ireland.

The project builds upon the earlier study NILS 022, Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland. The project assembled a panel of women from 1997 – 2007 aged between 16 and 44 years in each year, together with their characteristics drawn from the 2001 census and the births they had each year from the GRO. The analysis was based on the logit model with time dummies employed as the basis of the forecast...

Antidepressant exposure is high among women of childbearing age in Northern Ireland. A preliminary analysis of Health and Social Care Business Services Organisation Enhanced Prescribing Database has estimated a prevalence rate at 19.2% among women aged 15-45 years for July 2008 – February 2010. It is important to regularly monitor medicinal drug use among women of childbearing age and those in early pregnancy because the teratogenicity of most prescription drugs is undetermined and many pregnancies...

Future demand across the school sectors (controlled, maintained and integrated) in Northern Ireland is a public policy issue that requires timely and accurate information. While the most recent currently available counts for the school population are derived from information collected at the Census 2001, a current understanding of differing fertility levels, and future school populations, by area of residence and community background would provide significant assistance to those determining planning for schools, and equality of...